El Niño winter forecast

 

According to the NOAA forecast, this will be a strong El Niño winter, possibly the strongest ever recorded.   El Niño winters are milder and less snow than average in the midwest.  You can read the forecast here.

 Snow lovers, don't worry--there will be some snow! The average snow fall for the Chicago area is 36 inches.

What is El Niño?  According to National Geographic--

El Niño is a climate pattern that describes the unusual warming of surface waters in the eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean. Trade winds and atmosphere are also impacted by El Niño.

In fact, warmer Pacific water around the equator affects the weather patterns around the world.  The jet stream is also affected.   According to the National Weather Service--

During El Niño the southern jet stream strengthens especially across the eastern Pacific Ocean. This allows more moisture to be transported onshore in the Southwestern United States and generally more storminess across the southern part of the country in general.

What will this El Niño winter bring?  We'll see....

 

 

 

Leaves and Rain

Once again, the seasons turn the colors of the leaves. It's a bountiful year for acorns. A mast year, it's called.  So many acorns!  So many varieties of  oak trees. 

Autumnal thoughts. change and the impermanence of things. the gardens in their overgrown splendor and ruin. Thoughts turn to next spring, planting crocus bulbs, moving peonies.  The hope of next spring lilacs.

Next year's calendars are already here, on display alongside the Halloween decorations and candy.   

The new moon and the eclipse of October 14 has passed.  It was overcast in Chicago unfortunately, but there are  marvelous photos online. Here are some, from Space. com.

The moon is a waxing crescent now, visible in the evening sky. The next full moon will be on October 28. the Hunter's Moon, and a partial lunar eclipse!

This is the Ghost Season, the  haunted season of pumpkins and skeletons, witches and spider webs. We are spooked by plastic bags that could be ghosts, the creak of a gate, footsteps in the dark. 

We are haunted by past Octobers, by leaves and rain. We are haunted too, by history, by plagues and wars. 

Early October Days

 Early in October, there are days like yesterday when the sky is cloudless blue, and the light is almost blinding in its clarity. The gold of falling leaves in that October light,  a vision of poets and artists.  It is a day for glorious things. 

Carpenters, painters, roofers, gardeners, people walking their dogs, all of us in that golden light, feeling the  beauty of the world, of being alive here now. 

And then there are days like today, when the overcast gray sky is like a blanket. Heard, not seen, a line of geese heading south. The air is surprisingly chilly, and jackets and hoodies and layers are the outfits of the day. 

It's a moody and introspective day, a day without shadows, the kind of day when we turn inside, the comfort of roomy sweaters and soup simmering on the stove. 

This is autumn now.  It still feels like summer some days, the last of the ripening tomatoes. Some days, our thoughts turn to winter, and snow and cold. Leaves are starting to turn colors. Halloween decorations are out already. 

Now is the time to have the furnace checked and change the furnace filter. Time for  the last cut of the summer grass.