El Niño winter forecast

 

According to the NOAA forecast, this will be a strong El Niño winter, possibly the strongest ever recorded.   El Niño winters are milder and less snow than average in the midwest.  You can read the forecast here.

 Snow lovers, don't worry--there will be some snow! The average snow fall for the Chicago area is 36 inches.

What is El Niño?  According to National Geographic--

El Niño is a climate pattern that describes the unusual warming of surface waters in the eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean. Trade winds and atmosphere are also impacted by El Niño.

In fact, warmer Pacific water around the equator affects the weather patterns around the world.  The jet stream is also affected.   According to the National Weather Service--

During El Niño the southern jet stream strengthens especially across the eastern Pacific Ocean. This allows more moisture to be transported onshore in the Southwestern United States and generally more storminess across the southern part of the country in general.

What will this El Niño winter bring?  We'll see....

 

 

 

Leaves and Rain

Once again, the seasons turn the colors of the leaves. It's a bountiful year for acorns. A mast year, it's called.  So many acorns!  So many varieties of  oak trees. 

Autumnal thoughts. change and the impermanence of things. the gardens in their overgrown splendor and ruin. Thoughts turn to next spring, planting crocus bulbs, moving peonies.  The hope of next spring lilacs.

Next year's calendars are already here, on display alongside the Halloween decorations and candy.   

The new moon and the eclipse of October 14 has passed.  It was overcast in Chicago unfortunately, but there are  marvelous photos online. Here are some, from Space. com.

The moon is a waxing crescent now, visible in the evening sky. The next full moon will be on October 28. the Hunter's Moon, and a partial lunar eclipse!

This is the Ghost Season, the  haunted season of pumpkins and skeletons, witches and spider webs. We are spooked by plastic bags that could be ghosts, the creak of a gate, footsteps in the dark. 

We are haunted by past Octobers, by leaves and rain. We are haunted too, by history, by plagues and wars. 

Early October Days

 Early in October, there are days like yesterday when the sky is cloudless blue, and the light is almost blinding in its clarity. The gold of falling leaves in that October light,  a vision of poets and artists.  It is a day for glorious things. 

Carpenters, painters, roofers, gardeners, people walking their dogs, all of us in that golden light, feeling the  beauty of the world, of being alive here now. 

And then there are days like today, when the overcast gray sky is like a blanket. Heard, not seen, a line of geese heading south. The air is surprisingly chilly, and jackets and hoodies and layers are the outfits of the day. 

It's a moody and introspective day, a day without shadows, the kind of day when we turn inside, the comfort of roomy sweaters and soup simmering on the stove. 

This is autumn now.  It still feels like summer some days, the last of the ripening tomatoes. Some days, our thoughts turn to winter, and snow and cold. Leaves are starting to turn colors. Halloween decorations are out already. 

Now is the time to have the furnace checked and change the furnace filter. Time for  the last cut of the summer grass.

Approaching the Equinox

 

The wheel of the year turns to September, and the equinox. Astronomical fall begins in the northern hemisphere. In the southern hemisphere, they are welcoming spring.  

This year, the equinox occurs on September 23.  Because of  our tilted planet, the equinox marks the point at which the sun appears directly overhead at the equator. Day and night are about equal length. You can read more about equinoxes at Space.com

 

Days are getting shorter, now.   We have lost 2 hours, 52 minutes since the summer solstice on June 21.

 

Here, in the Chicago area, there is already a fall like feeling. Bring out the old favorite hoodies and sweaters again. Cool, crisp mornings and blankets at night.  A few nights ago, the furnace came on.

 

 There are cicada shells on the sidewalks, and the ivy is turning colors. Glorious blooms on the ornamental grasses. Milkweed pods are ripening. The Halloween candy is out at Walgreens, and there are signs for flu shots and the latest  COVID vaccine.

 

The seasons are turning, and the leaves that are green turn yellow and red, and brown.   

The leaves that are green

 

The full blue moon of August 30 is a waning crescent now. Next week,  there will be a new moon again.  

 

This is the first week of meteorological fall, and it feels autumnal today, overcast and 60's,  hoodies and long sleeves after the 90's Labor Day weekend.  

 

The  growing season is still ripening tomatoes and zucchini and peppers. The lawn grass may be turning brown, but the wild and ornamental grasses are sporting their seed heads that look like fringes or fox tails. 

And the leaves are still green.  The light through the leaves is glorious. Even the weedy trees that will have to be cut back in a couple of weeks, let them grow now.  

 

The garden sprawls in its wild and overgrown nature. Morning glories climb over the squash vines. 

Last Days of August

 These last days of August, and the End of Summer Sales, just in time for Labor Day.  Thoughts turn to fall things--flu shots and  school routines.

It's not even Labor Day yet, but Halloween things are out  already.

Tropical storm Idalia has intensified into a hurricane, heading for Florida. It is expected to make landfall on August 30, as a Category 3 Hurricane.  Evacuation orders are in place, and  storm surge warnings.  President Biden has pledged disaster relief already.

 Meanwhile,

A shooting in Jacksonville, FL.

A shooting in Chapel Hill

And Mugshot Day in Fulton county  Have you seen the mugshot T-shirts, the mugs, the shot glasses?

 There have been surprising summer movies--Have you seen Barbie?  Have you seen Oppenheimer?

It's been a summer of wildfires, flooding and tornadoes.  Heat wave even here, 2 days of Hot 100 inferno, 115 real feel. Then,  cold front  and cool breeze--bliss!  Weather in Paradise the last few days, but back in the 90's for the weekend. 

The season's changing, summer riding by on a bicycle.

Changing seasons--

 Plumes on the autumn grasses, purple morning glories climbing over  orange-yellow squash blossoms.

Fireflies are finished, and the dog day cicadas are lying on the sidewalks. Not all  crying  done, some will buzz and fly away. 

The dog Star Sirius is back with Orion the Hunter in the predawn sky.  You can read more about it here, at EarthSky

A time between seasons now.   The second  full moon of August  is on August 30--they call this a blue moon.   You can read more about it  here.

Last night the moon was almost full, rising through the summer trees. In the leaves, it seemed the moon was green. 

Mid- August Now

 Mid-August, and a new moon tonight. Now is the time of ripening tomatoes, peppers, beans and eggplants. 

The day lilies are just about finished, but the queen-anne's lace and the sky-blue chicory are still going strong. The giant sunflowers are beautiful now.

Also blooming now, the late-summer flowers,  white flowers of hostas and moon flowers,  the lavender -pink flowers of the Rose of Sharon bushes.

And the seedpods of milkweeds, ripening

Seedheads on the ornamental grasses, luminous in the sun,  drops of water like jewels after the rain.

Yes, much-needed rain here, but still dry conditions,  and falling yellow leaves.

Mid-August afternoon, and the sound of acorns falling.

Still time for the summer chairs, and watching fireflies.  The Perseid meteors  may be past their peak, but  it is not too late to see some.

It's been a summer of heat waves and wildfires, tornadoes and floods. They are saying this will be the hottest summer the world has ever seen. 

Heat index over 100 is possible here next week.